Zhiruo (Rachel) Zhang 张芷若
Senior Analyst · Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Ph.D. in Economics and Econometrics · Adelaide University
I am a Senior Analyst at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
I received my Ph.D. in Economics and Econometrics from Adelaide University in September 2026, under the supervision of Prof. Firmin Doko Tchatoka and A/Prof. Qazi Haque.
My research lies at the intersection of macroeconometrics and Bayesian econometrics, with a particular focus on developing econometric methods for macroeconomic and financial applications.
I also serve as Secretary of the Local Organizing Committee for the 2026 Econometric Society Australasia Meeting (ESAM).
Research Interests: Bayesian Econometrics · Time-Series Econometrics · Panel Data Econometrics · Macroeconomic & Financial Forecasting · Machine Learning · High-Dimensional Econometrics
📰 News
Nov 2026
Presenting at the 2026 Econometric Society Australasia Meeting (ESAM) , Adelaide University.
📝 Research
Adaptive Bayesian Shrinkage of High-Dimensional Panel VARs
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for estimating high-dimensional panel vector autoregressions using adaptive shrinkage and variable selection. The approach accommodates cross-sectional interdependence and unit-specific heterogeneity, performs well in Monte Carlo experiments, and delivers stable forecasts and economically interpretable evidence on financial contagion in euro-area sovereign bond markets.
Paper Slides Bayesian Network Estimation for High-Dimensional Panel VARs
This project develops a Bayesian Graphical Network Lasso for sparse precision-matrix estimation in high-dimensional PVARX models. The framework identifies contemporaneous conditional dependencies in an order-invariant way and is applied to international transmission of natural-disaster shocks across high-income economies.
Disentangling Spillover Networks and Transmission Channels in Panel VARs
This paper proposes a bi-level spike-and-slab framework that selects both bilateral country-pair spillovers and the variables operating within active links. An EM-based algorithm makes the non-convex model practical in high dimensions and reveals a sparse, structured global macroeconomic network with interpretable transmission channels.
🔬 Work in Progress
Structural Transformation, Green Technology, and Labor Reallocation
Clean Up or Move Out? Environmental Regulation and Firm Responses under the “Two Mountains” Theory
This project builds an economic model inspired by the “Two Mountains” theory (“lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”) to study a central question: after environmental regulation tightens, do firms actually become cleaner, or do they simply relocate?
📬 Contact
Personal